Peak Oil Theories?

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Peak Oil Theories?

#1 Unread post by bandit600 »

What do you guys think about some of the more doomsday peak oil theories out there. If you're not sure what I'm talking about google "peak oil" and read the study / report on Life After the Oil Crash, it's a very interesting read and although I don't agree with a lot of the conclusions, I can't poke holes in it as much as I would like.

I like to think of myself as a fairly educated and objective person. This report follows the path of a worst case scenario but I think the author has consolidated some very interesting points, particularly about our societies financial systems and alternative energy sources.

At the least I think we're headed for a very serious recession. I often scratch my head over some of the decisions that the government is making currently but this report makes me go hmmm.

As an aside, anyone know what kind of mpg I can expect on a 250 Ninja for a 180lb guy?
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#2 Unread post by baltimorebayside »

I read that we have MORE oil in our own country than the MIddle East...Our Politicians are waiting until their's run out and we'll start drilling becoming the oil capital of the world.......

If our own Gov.t doesn't get off their arse and start using some common sense instead of thinking of themselves getting ahead in the office, we'll make this the biggest 3rd world country on Earth....all thanks to the crooked no funs on Capital Hill...

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#3 Unread post by Kibagari »

If you don't like what the government is doing, do something about it. Otherwise, stop sitting around and whining about it- you're not getting any of us anywhere.

Petitions and protests are wonderful things, as are angry farmers with guns marching on the capitol. Be a part of something, don't just sit around waiting for other people to do it for you.
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Peak Oil

#4 Unread post by RhadamYgg »

Peak Oil is based on an estimate - of how much oil is in the ground.

How much oil is in the ground? We don't really know.

How easy is it to get that oil out of the ground? Depends, most of it - is pretty easy to get, some of it is harder to get and the last little bits cost us more to get then we get in terms of energy consumption.

Where are we on the curve of easy oil to retrieve? We don't really know.

However, there are some things we do know.

1) There is a limited/finite amount of oil in the ground.
2) Demand for oil is going up at a dramatic rate - not US demand (which is going down recently) but world demand. While the US is the single largest consumer of oil, the large populations of China and India that believe they have as much right to consume oil as we do are beginning to gain the financial status to consume oil like we do in the US. They certainly have every right to consume as much oil as people do (per capita) in the US. The problem is that when we all consume oil at that rate - oil's finite supply will drop dramatically.

As oil gets more expensive it will be more worthwhile for oil companies to retrieve some of the harder to get supplies. But, never will it be economical for us to get the oil that costs more in energy to get out of the ground than it gives us energy to use up here.

Net result is that nobody knows where we are on the curve. It seems likely though that consumption has continued at high rates and that any finite supply, no matter how large will decline under high rates of consumption.

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#5 Unread post by AZRider »

Its left wing eco-radical BS.
Like global warming and polar bears going extinct.
Its a tool for hysterical left wing radicals to further there agenda.
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#6 Unread post by jonnythan »

AZRider wrote:Its left wing eco-radical BS.
Like global warming and polar bears going extinct.
Its a tool for hysterical left wing radicals to further there agenda.
So we'll never run out of oil?
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#7 Unread post by bandit600 »

I want to encourage discussion and opinions regarding the topic, but I'm am particularly referring to the study in the original post.

I had heard of some of the more dramatic predictions for the fallout from peak oil and like many others dismissed it as radical and extremist pessimism. This particular study/report cited sources, presented data and conclusions in a clear and direct manner and made some STRONG points that forced me to consider what the author was trying to convey.

I'm hoping for others to possibly read the study / report and help me poke holes in the logic, because I don't think any of us wishes that prediction to play out.
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#8 Unread post by jonnythan »

bandit600 wrote:I want to encourage discussion and opinions regarding the topic, but I'm am particularly referring to the study in the original post.

I had heard of some of the more dramatic predictions for the fallout from peak oil and like many others dismissed it as radical and extremist pessimism. This particular study/report cited sources, presented data and conclusions in a clear and direct manner and made some STRONG points that forced me to consider what the author was trying to convey.

I'm hoping for others to possibly read the study / report and help me poke holes in the logic, because I don't think any of us wishes that prediction to play out.
The price of oil will go up and down, but trend upwards, driving research and investment into alternatives.

Once the price of oil gets high enough to make, say, hydrogen economical, we'll start moving over en masse.

It's not like the price of oil will go up indefinitely. Once it goes high enough, other things will start supplanting oil.
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#9 Unread post by RhadamYgg »

jonnythan wrote:
bandit600 wrote:I want to encourage discussion and opinions regarding the topic, but I'm am particularly referring to the study in the original post.

I had heard of some of the more dramatic predictions for the fallout from peak oil and like many others dismissed it as radical and extremist pessimism. This particular study/report cited sources, presented data and conclusions in a clear and direct manner and made some STRONG points that forced me to consider what the author was trying to convey.

I'm hoping for others to possibly read the study / report and help me poke holes in the logic, because I don't think any of us wishes that prediction to play out.
The price of oil will go up and down, but trend upwards, driving research and investment into alternatives.

Once the price of oil gets high enough to make, say, hydrogen economical, we'll start moving over en masse.

It's not like the price of oil will go up indefinitely. Once it goes high enough, other things will start supplanting oil.
The question is - at what point does the model we use for driving and work become not affordable? Does that point happen before the alternatives are ready for real-time full-time use?

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#10 Unread post by High_Side »

jonnythan wrote: Once the price of oil gets high enough to make, say, hydrogen economical, we'll start moving over en masse.
I always love this one: Where will the H2 come from? :mrgreen:

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