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Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:54 pm
by jstark47
koji52 wrote:I guess you didn't read my post in the other thread. HD will almost definately default on debt in April if they can't generate some cash to increase liquidity and hopefully refinance (OR pay off those loans which isn't likely). The receivables that they've sold to investors in the past are not selling anymore. The company is generating negative operating cash flow which means they probably won't be paying off loans via sales of motorcycles. Short-term, it's necessary. The cutting of Buell will save some cash, and selling MV will generate cash.
Actually, I did read and enjoy your post. I just have a different opinion of the short-term benefits of their moves, especially closing Buell. On a related note, does anyone actually know the terms of their contract with Rotax for 1125 engines? (I've read a lot of guesses, but does anyone
know the contract?) Do they have a firm buyer for MV? What are the terms of sale?
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2009 1:12 am
by koji52
Well, I stand corrected. My arguments agree with both of your stances (short-term - Gummi) and (long-term - J). I guess as an analyst, I look long and hard at liquidity and leverage given current market conditions. We'll see how it plays out I suppose. My prediction, though, is reorganization under Chapter 11 and a heavy reduction in manufacturing.
I heard the local dealership quoted $6500 on an r. I may be trading in the xl for one.
Re: Rider's Edge Courses
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2009 1:40 pm
by RhadamYgg
Gummiente wrote:Johnj wrote:So your saying by not cultivating new customers Harley will be able to weather the current economic downturn.
That is not what I said at at all. What I'm saying is that attracting new riders is not the prime mandate at this point in time, the big panic is to cut costs and keep the company afloat and one step ahead of Chapter 11. The Rider's Edge is an expenditure and does not give a solid return for every dollar spent. Therefore, it will most likely get the axe especially since the motorcycle used on the course is no longer being built. If every student who took the course immediately bought a Harley at the completion, THEN it might make sense to keep the program going. But even then they still wouldn't have a proper bike to use now.
It doesn't matter that Buell, MV Augusta and (probably) the Rider's Edge have been cut and the CEO doesn't know the immediate value of the savings at this point in time - the point is cuts were made and there will be some savings that will be realised down the road. And, again, that is what makes shareholders happy.
I actually pretty much agree with all of this. In time, they might be able to bring these things back. Perhaps we might be able to look forward to a low-displacement HD bike.
In view of this, I could see where HD might even drop sponsorship (short-term) to the MSF. Which could have other unexpected collateral damage to the motorcycling industry - with reduced availability of the MSF course.
RhadamYgg
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2009 1:55 pm
by Johnj
If they keep discounting those 1125s they'll be gone soon.
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2009 2:06 pm
by RhadamYgg
I do so want one, but my wife said if I get one I'll have to string a hammock between the bikes.
I don't think she gets that I'd be trading in my current bike...
RhadamYgg
Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:13 am
by koji52
I just picked one up yesterday! I traded in the sportster for it.
I took it for a test ride at the dealership up and down rt. 1 and I95. A little scared of the 140+ hp. While the throttle is pretty sensitive, it's not to the point where I am paranoid to ride. The bike has loads of power and is incredibly stable at high and crawling speeds. I got a great deal on it and love it. It's much different from what I'm used to (forward controls) and leaning forward will take some getting used to. 113 miles on the odometer at the moment.
Pics to follow
Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:41 am
by dean owens
the eye never has enough of seeing....
i'm so completely happy with my bike. and i have no need for an 1125. BUT i do want one. if only this could have taken place 6 months ago when i bought my fz6. i might would have bought a buell.
Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:54 am
by koji52
I don't need the bike. But, the sportster wasn't selling for what I would have needed to sell it for, so trading it in and upgrading for a few grand out of pocket didn't seem unreasonable. I'll probably sell in a year depending on how the market is going but it is rather nice to be able to jump on these deals.
Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2009 12:02 pm
by RhadamYgg
Sweeeeeeet!