totalmotorcycle wrote:Excellent news, rumors and thoughts/opinions on this thread. I really look forward to the 2010 Harley-Davidson model year as it will show where the company is heading and what they are thinking with the new economy.
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I imagine having added production numbers will leave 2008's on the floor longer and it's the supply and demand that has helped H-D's keep their re-sale value so that will have to be addressed.
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IF ANYONE hears any other news or sees the 2010's up on Harley's site let me know please (PM me), just post it here I'll watch this thread.
Mike
Everything that I've heard shows a philosophical battle going on through out the HD empire (such as it is). The company is perilously close to finding the same point of disaster that the Brits did in the 70s. How HD handles the conflicting tugs and pulls that it is facing right now shows how it will survive the future.
Since AMF, WillieG turned the company into an Ameican company whose management and workers were Americans and built bikes for Americans. This might or will change in the future and there is concern that it will drive Americans from the exclusiveness of Harley Davidson. The perceived totally Americanness of Harley Davidson allowed Harley to sell bikes for a price that alowed this exclusiveness. That and resale values being so high, it's cuctomer base got more and more exclusive. And in turn HD model types shrank as well.
Now it faces three main problems.
Emissions levels are becoming tougher and air cooled motorcycles are problematic about dealing with this. Everyone has complained about the increased heat of the new bikes and this will only get worse. So is water cooling may be the order of the day? Will the exclusive faithful accept this? What will HD do if these faithful lose their interest in HD?
It used to be that changes were fewer and farther apart over a period of time. This kept resale values up and customers felt justified in paying higher intial prices for HD motorcycles because they would get a larger return on their dollar come trade in time. Now HD is changing rapidly and various models are losing value because of changes to the model line. The biggest one this year was the changing of the frame of the touring motorcycles. Those who bought 2008s felt cheated because of this and found thier bikes worth less in resail value. How will HD handle this in the future? Note: my Shovelhead is worth more than what was paid for it new 25+ years ago. Will new Harleys be able to say that.
Finally, Harley has become more of a general finacial company. There are pressures on it to become more of a general motorcycle company. Can HD survive this? Can it gain in new customers what it loses in the company faithful? Can it keep its image and produce a larger number of models of all types of motorcycles. All of them being uniquely Harleys. For it is general consensus that if Harley loses its image, the big companies will just eat it alive.
So for many people, 2010 is a very exciting year. It isn't what is actually produces but what directions HD will head. Can HD be smart enough to survive and still show an American face to the public. Or will HD go the way of GM and slowly eat itself alive?
As for the latest rumors, There will be a XR1200X. However, the California emission standards board approved a certification of a new XR1200 and XR1200X. However, it was done on the same cerification so the engine in both of them will be the same. How or what they actually turn out to be is widely debated but they will suffer more from emissions standards. And probably cost more if inside HD reps are to be believed.
Which is turning out to a clutch play for HD. There is a large (huge) surplus of 2008 and 2009 motorcycles. How and what HD will releases will have to deal with this fact as well. Using the XR1200 series again. In some places the XR was such a great seller that they couldn't keep any on the sales floor but in other places they couldn't generate any interest at all in them. So there is a conflict in what to do with the new ones. Redistribute the 2009 XRs to those shops that can sell them or just release the 2010 models on top of them. And if the case that there was such a discrepancy in shops that could and dealers that couldn't sell them, is the belief in a 2nd model of XR/X be misplaced?
Don't have any clues to go beyond the knowledge of the questions.
I bought my last bike for this year, a 2009 CVO Fat Bob. However, I may pick it up from where it sits and move it to a customer that desperately wants it. I want a Fat Bob but can't ignore the deal. Nevertheless, I have the pieces to build one from the ground up so that may be the way to go for me. I wanted a bigger, badder motor in it anyway...
