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MrGompers wrote:
I had forgotten about this thread. Prolly the best thread I've been involved in. I was eagerly awaiting flynriders equations & graphs too.

I just got around to seeing this one. All of the data you're looking for is available from D.O.E. I download it every week. If you can find the conspiracy in the numbers, you'll be doing better than the FTC, which has been trying to come up with a case for price-fixing for several years (BTW- This is the only industry that they do this for). Good luck!

flynrider wrote:

MrGompers wrote:
I had forgotten about this thread. Prolly the best thread I've been involved in. I was eagerly awaiting flynriders equations & graphs too.

I just got around to seeing this one. All of the data you're looking for is available from D.O.E. I download it every week. If you can find the conspiracy in the numbers, you'll be doing better than the FTC, which has been trying to come up with a case for price-fixing for several years (BTW- This is the only industry that they do this for). Good luck!

I don't care about price fixing. I'm talking about economic fundamentals. I wanted you to show me graphs & equations demonstrating oil & gas DO NOT have an inelastic demand curve. Since you were so insistent that they do. I even gave you a hint a few weeks ago to get you started.

As I said before I would love to see the price of gas rise to $10 per gallon tomorrow. Then we'll see some real change.

The reasons that won't happen is two-fold (which I have already stated before)

The oil industry is about maximizing the profit of oil until it does run out. Plus they are selling oil below a price point that will discourage the devolpment & use of alternative fuels.

Download the numbers and you'll see the price vs. demand curves. I'd recommend focusing on last August through December. The Katrina business did an excellent job of showing that demand drops off in short order as prices rise.

Ultimately, it doesn't really make much difference to me whether or not you believe me. If I followed what they apparently taught you in economics class, I'd be broke by now. Suffice it to say that I'm not.

flynrider wrote:Download the numbers and you'll see the price vs. demand curves. I'd recommend focusing on last August through December. The Katrina business did an excellent job of showing that demand drops off in short order as prices rise.

Ultimately, it doesn't really make much difference to me whether or not you believe me. If I followed what they apparently taught you in economics class, I'd be broke by now. Suffice it to say that I'm not.

What I'm trying to explain to you is important because you are broadcasting incorrect information & I don't want others believing it. I personally don't care if you believe it or not.

You are way over your head on this subject. The demand changes your seeing are due to restricted supply. The demand for products with inelastic demand curves are NOT affected by price.

This is very basic economics. I have no clue why you would ignore 100+ years of economic theory. I have already given you the equations that prove this. Obviously, you don't have the math background to interpret those equations.

Do you realize that if you were able to disprove me with equations you would be in Pulitzer Prize terroritory ?

Go to a library and check out any macroeconomics book. It will clearly demostrate this. You are clearly missing a hallmark on inelastic products which is a product that can't be substituted for and oil certainly meets that.
Ask yourself if there is no gasoline tomorrow what would you put in your car ? Mullet cream ? I don't think so.

For future reference if you are debating a subject remember that you can't debate away facts. What I'm presenting here are facts. This is not something that I cooked up over the weekend in my basement.

In my office alone I have 2 co workers with masters degrees in economics and they agree with everything that I'm saying. The very facts I'm presenting here were taught to me by a professor with a PHD in economics. There is no way in hell these people are wrong.

Just because you can make 45 cents on oil future contracts does not make you an expert. And if you are shorting all those contracts I hope that margin call kicks your asss.

Having a masters or a phd doesn't exclude anyone from being an idiot

You just have to study hard

MrGompers wrote:You are way over your head on this subject. The demand changes your seeing are due to restricted supply. The demand for products with inelastic demand curves are NOT affected by price.

This is very basic economics. I have no clue why you would ignore 100+ years of economic theory. I have already given you the equations that prove this. Obviously, you don't have the math background to interpret those equations.

Economists with PhD's have been trying to explain how the economy works for 100 yrs. They don't have a great track record. You can call it inelastic as much as you want, but the data I work with shows otherwise. That's how I make my money.

Since you have (condescendly) pointed out that I'm in way over my head, I guess I'll just have to give up and put my cash in the bank instead.

Do you realize that if you were able to disprove me with equations you would be in Pulitzer Prize terroritory ?

That's doubtful, as the Pulitzer prize is awarded for excellence in journalism, literature and music. Didn't they teach you that in college?

Just because you can make 45 cents on oil future contracts does not make you an expert.

Because you once took a college course in economics. That obviously makes you an expert.

And if you are shorting all those contracts I hope that margin call kicks your asss.

I'm sorry you feel that way. Just because we have a disagreement here, I wouldn't wish anything bad on you personally.

I'm satisfied that we could continue to disagree on this subject indefinitely. Someone bring out the dead horse picture

LOL the nobel prize for economics was created in 1968.
In 1995 it was changed to social sciences to include political science, psychology, and sociology.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_Sw ... fred_Nobel

You haven't checked a single fact I've presented here.

At least it sounds like you just admitted you never studied economics at the college level. Which makes this whole debate pointless.

And if you must know I hold a B.S. in Accounting and part of that degree included 3 classes in economics. Macroeconomics, Microeconomics, and introduction to Econometrics.

You didn't even see that I already gave you the answers in my previous posts about inelastic demand as it pertains to the oil market. And how you can disprove that. (which is impossible)

If you don't like oil as a product with inelastic demand you can use prescription drugs instead both are inelastic. One advantage with prescription drugs is you can see the effect when a subsitute becomes available. (after the patents run out) No such effect has happened with oil yet.

Prolly the only thing that we agree on is there is no conspirarcy or price fixing in the market. And if the govt is looking for one its a complete waste of time & money. Then again the govt doesn't care they only want to appear that they are doing something in time for elections.

This thread is over 1,000 views already. I don't personally care if you believe me or not. It doesn't change the principles of economics or mathematics.

What's important here is to realize the nature of oil's demand (and products derived from it) and how deal with that and what its impacts are.

Oil (and products derived from it) drive the financial markets. If a substitute was found for oil ALL the financial markets around the world would crash. NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. This is also the major reason a substitute will never come to market. Oil companies are aware of this & all the govts around the world are aware of it too.

How to get off of oil and prevent that I don't know. Thats a question smarter people than me will have to answer. Sooner or later the demand for oil will disappear.

And if you shorted oil futures nows the time to cover. Prices have dropped $5 in the last 5 days I think for July contracts.

MrGompers wrote:LOL the nobel prize for economics was created in 1968.
In 1995 it was changed to social sciences to include political science, psychology, and sociology.

That's nice... but you said:

MrGompers wrote:Do you realize that if you were able to disprove me with equations you would be in Pulitzer Prize terroritory ?

dieziege wrote:

MrGompers wrote:LOL the nobel prize for economics was created in 1968.
In 1995 it was changed to social sciences to include political science, psychology, and sociology.

That's nice... but you said:

MrGompers wrote:Do you realize that if you were able to disprove me with equations you would be in Pulitzer Prize terroritory ?

LOL I didn't even notice that. Yea it should be Nobel prize. That's what I get for posting while drinking Heinken.