Hopefully I can provide some
realistic insight to your situation, as I was in the exact same one this year.
Looking for a first bike, thinking about the 500r, possibly the 250r, but finally deciding on the 650r. Here's what I found out. First thing is, good luck getting a 250r at a decent price. They are completely sold out across Canada, and probably similar situation in USA. People are selling them online, used, for more than the MSRP. And they are being bought. 2009 models are taking pre-orders, and are already sold out in some areas.
The 250r is a GREAT starter bike, if you have the option to get it. A lot of the times that is not an option. I believe the 2008 250r MSRP is $3,999 canadian (or $4,300). I got my 650r, albeit last years model, for $5,999. Not a great deal, but brand new that's not bad. So as far as bang for your buck, the 250r is going to be hard to bargain down due to the demand, and as for being a used one cheap, forget about it.
As far as deferring other costs go, people will say you will drop your bike. I am one of those people. I dropped my bike. Twice. Guess what, plastics are plastics, and it doesn't matter if you ruin your 600RR plastics, or your 250r plastics, they are still expensive. Invest in some $100 frame sliders, they saved me thousands.
Now for the important part. The issue of "too much bike." I have been lucky enough to ride a 2008 250r, a 2007 650r, and directly compare them. For arguments sake, and comparison, I will also indulge you in the tale of hopping on a brand new 2008 R6.
As everyone has said, the 250r is a great bike. That is a fact. Light, nimble and dead sexy. You're not going to grab a handful of throttle and flip the bike here.
650r. As you said, you fell in love. I did the same
This is not a 600CC super sport race replica. This is a sport-touring bike. More of a standard. First thing I can say. COMFY "O Ring" BIKE! I've done day long tours with this baby and felt like a million bucks afterwards. This is my bike, so I have the most experience with it out of the three. I've made mistakes on it. Grabbed handfuls of throttle in a lower gear (grabbing a handful in 6th isn't really going to do much) and I got a bit of a scare, but I wasn't about to wheelie the thing. Grab the clutch and you're fine.
Now the R6. This is DEFINITELY something you want to stay away from. I put my hand on the throttle and "began" to move it and the RPMs shoot up to 8k. You HAVE to be smooth on this thing or you're going to get in a lot of trouble. NOT FOR THE NEW RIDER.
Now, you seem smart enough to stay away from the 600cc supersports. So we'll compare the 250 and the 650. It seems your main concern is safety. Now from what I've read/know, anything that you do on the 650 that will get you in trouble, will still get you in trouble on the 250. This includes going into a corner too hot, not being aware at an intersection, not being aware of the cages around you. The only thing that will get you into trouble is if you CHOOSE to ride past your limits on the 650, as it will bring you to 200km/h+ and the 250 will not do that.
So in this respect, if you ride properly, within your limits, the 650r is a WONDERFUL bike you can enjoy for years and years.
I hope I helped.
